By Melissa Davies, Wise Ways Consulting
Welcome to February.
How did you manage with this week’s snow? With modern weather forecasting and our already acute sense of stocking up thanks to COVID-19 restriction training, my guess is most people in the Washington metro area did fine. We have full gas tanks, comfort food on the stove, work plans, kids corralled, a few Netflix selections at the ready, and wood for our fire pits.
We have the benefit of storm tracking and hindsight from past events. And while a storm always has risks, you had enough time to buy milk.
However, how do you plan when you have no warning? When the storm changes course or the world shuts down due to a pandemic, or any small but personal crisis in your world? These are called black swan events. It’s a metaphor for an unexpected event that is usually catastrophic, and that in hindsight should have been predicted and perhaps better managed. The pandemic, the riot at the Capitol, and even the GameStop stock surge are all recent Black Swan events.
Plan for the worst. Hope for the best.
I’m not a doomsayer or advising you become an extreme prepper. Yet, as we are in the heart of winter with snow still falling, now is a good time to prepare for emergencies.
The Prince William County Office of Emergency Management has a page on its website specific for our community. Check out the valuable information that they publish for all of us to take advantage of and from which to learn.
What about your place of business? In the event of a shutdown due to a natural disaster or a cyber security attack, what is the chain of command? Who do you call and what are you expected to do?
Can you plan for a black swan event?
No one can be ready for everything, but if you think about potential future problems that you may be putting off, you likely can better prepare for those. April 15 is tax filing day. If you need tax assistance, now would be a great time to seek that out instead of April 11.
Prince William County teachers began receiving COVID 19 vaccines Jan. 30. And while this is fantastic news, it doesn’t mean schools will reopen tomorrow. If your child is struggling with online learning, don’t wait until they fail before reaching out to your principal or teacher.
I may be stretching the definition of black swan from a large societal event to a personal crisis, but the message is the same. Plan and prepare.
Leaders often run through worst case scenarios and hire public relations firms to prepare crisis communication plans. For the average family, that seems rather extreme.
Can you answer these tough questions?
- What is your plan if you or someone you care for catches COVID?
- What is your plan if you lose access to your primary mode of transportation?
- What is your plan if you lose your income?
Some hard questions – and some basic planning can turn an unexpected crisis into a manageable event. And to be fair to black swans, they are beautiful birds. Planning and being prepared for winter or whatever may come your way is beautiful too.
Melissa Davies is an executive leadership coach and facilitator as well as the author of How Not to Act Like a BLEEP at Work. She resides in Prince William County and runs Wise Ways Consulting, which specializes in leadership, management and team development, executive coaching, group facilitation and high-engagement training. She can be reached at info@wisewaysconsulting.com or through wisewaysconsulting.com.
